Indonesia Remains Confident in 5% Growth Despite IMF Lower Forecast

4 hours ago 3

April 24, 2025 | 03:08 pm

TEMPO.CO, JakartaFinance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is confident that Indonesia’s economy will grow by up to 5 percent in 2025. Sri Mulyani remains optimistic despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting Indonesia’s economic growth projection to 4.7 percent.

“Indonesia’s economic growth in 2025 is still expected to reach around 5 percent,” said Sri Mulyani during a press conference following the 2025 second periodic meeting of the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK).

In the April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF revised its economic growth projections for countries worldwide. The IMF now predicts Indonesia’s economy will grow by only 4.7 percent in 2025, down from its earlier forecast of 5.1 percent.

The IMF’s downward revision comes amid rising trade war tensions following the United States’ announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Sri Mulyani stated that the IMF lowered its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth by 0.4 percent compared to its previous prediction.

Nevertheless, Sri Mulyani stated that the IMF’s revision of Indonesia’s economy was more favorable than other countries. For example, Thailand’s projection was revised by 1.1 percent from the previous estimate, Vietnam’s by 0.9 percent, the Philippines' by 0.6 percent, and Mexico's by 1.7 percent.

According to Sri Mulyani, the sharper downward revisions for some countries were due to their heavy reliance on international trade. “Their exposure to international trade is greater, and the impact or connection of their economies to the U.S. is also stronger,” said Sri.

The worsening impact of the tariff war has become more evident after China announced retaliatory measures. Although most countries have responded to the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy through diplomatic channels or negotiations, retaliatory actions, according to Sri Mulyani, have further strained trade relations between the U.S. and China.

In light of these developments, she said, Indonesia will continue to heighten its vigilance in facing global economic dynamics. In addition to pursuing negotiations, the government will support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies.

Confidence in strong economic growth prospects stems from continuing national strategic projects and increasing construction that stimulates investment. Indonesia's manufacturing sector also remains in expansion, and export performance is expected to stay strong.

Indonesia’s exports are supported by an increase in non-oil and gas exports, particularly palm oil (CPO), iron and steel, as well as machinery and electrical equipment. According to Sri Mulyani, the government is also actively exploring opportunities to expand exports of leading products in ASEAN markets, BRICS countries, and Europe, amid the reciprocal tariff policy imposed by the U.S. Due to these factors, she projects that Indonesia's economy will still grow by 5 percent in 2025.

Editor's Choice: IMF Downgrades Indonesia's Economic Growth Forecast to 4.7%

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