Fact Check: Virus Outbreaks Do Not Occur Every 6 Years

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A video on Instagram [archive] claims the world experiences a pattern of virus outbreaks or pandemics every six years. The post, dated May 17, 2026, narrates that the pandemics were deliberately orchestrated by a certain group.

The video compares several global outbreaks to conclude that there is a regular cycle. The narrative details the cycle starting with SARS-CoV in 2002, swine flu in 2008, Ebola in 2014, SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, and finally the Hantavirus in 2026.

However, is it true that virus outbreaks occur regularly every six years?

FACT CHECK

Tempo interviewed epidemiologists and reviewed credible media reports. The results showed no scientific pattern that pandemics or major viral outbreaks always occur every six years.

Epidemiologist Dicky Budiman from Australia's Griffith University said the number of viruses in nature is estimated at 1.6 million, and around 800,000 of them are suspected of having the potential to cause epidemics. So far, only a small fraction of these viruses have been studied in depth.

"Perhaps around one percent is known in detail to humans," Dicky Budiman told Tempo on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. According to him, viruses known to the public, such as Ebola, Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS), pneumococcus, polio, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Hantavirus, and Hendravirus, are only a small fraction of the total number of viruses in nature.

No 6-Year Pattern in Epidemiology

Dicky explained that historical data on modern pandemics shows that the time span between outbreaks varies greatly. The emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in 2002, Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in 2009, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012, and Covid-19 in 2019.

The time span between outbreaks ranges from 3 to 7 years. Meanwhile, other outbreaks, such as Ebola, Zika, pneumococcus, avian influenza, and even Hantavirus, occur at different times without a fixed interval.

He cited the Ebola and Hantavirus viruses, which were actually identified decades ago. "Ebola has been around since the 1970s, and Hantavirus since the 1970s and even the 1950s. So, if you compare them, they look right, but they're actually wrong," said Dicky.

Therefore, Dicky urged the public to understand the history of virus discovery and epidemiology as a whole, not just from snippets of viral information on social media.

Psychologically, humans tend to look for patterns in random events. This phenomenon is called apophenia, which is the tendency to see relationships or patterns even when there is no strong causal link. The six-year pattern appears to fit simply because the uploader selects some outbreaks and ignores others. Scientifically, this pattern is not proven.

Dicky also reminded the public to be cautious about information related to outbreaks. Because, since ancient times, disease outbreaks have often been used as a political tool by certain parties.

History of Virus Outbreaks

The Science Direct website reports historical records that infectious diseases have been endemic to pandemics in various parts of the world since 430 BC. The Plague of Athens was the first identified transnational pandemic, killing approximately 100,000 people.

The next major pandemic struck in 541 due to the Plague of Justinian (Yersinia pestis). This outbreak claimed an estimated 30–50 million lives, or half the world's population at the time.

The long list of microbial threats to humans continues with the emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002, Zika in 2015, and SARS-CoV-2, the cause of Covid-19, in 2019. This historical record underscores the crucial importance of preventing microbial resistance to avoid mutations or the emergence of new outbreaks that could be more deadly than the initial outbreak.

CONCLUSION

Tempo's verification concludes that the claim that viral outbreaks occur every six years is false.

TEMPO FACT-CHECK TEAM

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