TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Britain is expected to face a hotter-than-average summer in 2026, with forecasters warning of an increased risk of heatwaves after record-breaking temperatures were recorded in May. Weather models indicate parts of England could see temperatures climb as high as 34 degrees Celsius later this month, raising concerns about water supplies and heat-related impacts.
As reported by Express, forecast maps suggest a widespread heat surge around June 20, with at least 17 areas across England expected to exceed 30 degrees Celsius. Southern England could see temperatures between 31 and 34 degrees Celsius, while parts of the Midlands are forecast to reach 30 to 31 degrees Celsius.
Areas expected to experience the hottest conditions include London, Essex, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk, Norfolk, Hampshire, Wiltshire, Lincolnshire, and parts of the East and West Midlands.
The Met Office has already warned that the UK faces an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average weather throughout June, July, and August. In its seasonal outlook released on June 1, the agency said there is a greater chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts during the summer months.
The warning follows an exceptionally warm spring. The UK recorded its hottest May temperature on record when thermometers reached 35.1 degrees Celsius at Kew Gardens in London, surpassing a record that had stood since 1944. The heat prompted authorities to issue amber and yellow heat-health alerts for the first time this year.
Meteorologists at MeteoGroup, which provides forecasting data for BBC Weather, have also predicted several periods of intense heat across both the UK and mainland Europe this summer. The forecaster expects temperatures in June, July, and August to remain above seasonal averages, with the possibility of significant temperature spikes.
According to the Met Office, as cited by Secret London, hotter summers are becoming increasingly common due to long-term climate trends. The agency said hotter-than-average summer conditions are now roughly twice as likely compared with the 1991–2020 climate reference period.
While confidence is relatively high regarding warmer temperatures, rainfall forecasts remain less certain. MeteoGroup expects much of England and Wales to experience drier-than-average conditions during June and July, while the Met Office projects rainfall levels closer to seasonal averages, with some areas potentially seeing wetter conditions.
Concerns about water supplies are already emerging in parts of southern and eastern England. Several counties, including Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, and Dorset, experienced exceptionally dry conditions during spring, receiving as little as one-quarter of their normal rainfall. River levels in some regions have already fallen to notably or exceptionally low levels.
Last summer highlighted the risks posed by uneven rainfall distribution. Although overall UK rainfall reached 84 percent of the seasonal average in 2025, central, eastern, and southern England received less than half of their normal precipitation, resulting in drought declarations and hosepipe bans in several areas.
Recent hot weather has already increased pressure on water infrastructure. During the late-May heatwave, Thames Water reported an additional one billion liters of water consumption compared with the same holiday period a year earlier. Around 18,000 households in southeast England also experienced supply disruptions amid surging demand.
Despite the heightened heat risk, forecasters cautioned that seasonal outlooks provide broad climate trends rather than precise day-to-day weather predictions. Cooler periods and unsettled conditions remain possible throughout the summer.
Nevertheless, weather agencies agree that the overall trend points toward a warmer summer for the UK, with higher temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, and growing challenges for public health, water management, and infrastructure resilience.
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