Soviet-Era Spacecraft Kosmos 482 Could Crash in Indonesian Territory, BRIN Says

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 is expected to crash down to Earth on Saturday, May 10, 2025. The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) estimates the potential of the spacecraft to fall in Indonesian territory.

Chief Researcher of the BRIN Space Research Center, Thomas Djamaluddin, explained that Kosmos 482 has been orbiting the Earth on an elliptical trajectory since its failure to reach Venus. "Kosmos 482 was deployed in a landing mission on planet Venus, but failed to reach Venus and has remained in Earth's orbit since March 1972," said Thomas as quoted on the BRIN page on May 5, 2025.

The spacecraft is expected to descend at a speed of about 242 kilometers per hour, similar to that of a meteor. Currently, the orbit of Kosmos 482 is continuously descending due to atmospheric resistance. From its initial altitude of almost 10,000 kilometers, it is now at an altitude of about 200 kilometers. The object will fall within a few minutes when its altitude reaches around 120 kilometers.

BRIN has yet been able to determine when and where the Kosmos 482 probe will fall due to the uncertainty of atmospheric resistance factors. However, considering its orbit crosses regions between 52 degrees north latitude and 52 degrees south latitude, BRIN predicts that the Kosmos 482 spacecraft could potentially fall in Indonesian territory.

"As a country in the equatorial region with very vast territory, Kosmos 482 could fall within Indonesia's territory. However, due to the uncertainty of atmospheric resistance factors, the location and time of the crash remain difficult to determine," said Thomas.

Initially, the probe was equipped with a parachute system intended to slow its descent when landing on Venus. However, the Kosmos 482 parachute is estimated to have been damaged after being trapped in space for over 50 years.

Quoted from the BBC, Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, Stijn Lemmens, said the lander capsule of Kosmos 482 is a tough, spherical object about a meter wide and weighs nearly half a ton.

Soviet-Made

Kosmos 482 itself is part of the Soviet Union's Venus exploration program known as Venera. This spacecraft weighs about 1.2 tons. The spacecraft was launched in 1972 but failed to reach the orbit of Venus due to a malfunction in the final stage of the launch.

The spacecraft has broken into four parts. Two small parts fell in 1972. The third and largest part, weighing approximately 0.7 ton, fell in May 1981. The remaining component is the lander capsule, weighing 0.5 ton.

BRIN says the lander capsule was designed to withstand the Venusian atmosphere, so it is expected to remain intact upon crashing. The heat from Earth's atmosphere will cause the Kosmos 482 probe to appear as a large meteor, resembling a fast-moving fireball.

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