Argentina vs Switzerland: World Cup Quarterfinal Prediction

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Argentine superstar Lionel Messi is leading his side in their quest for the 2026 World Cup crown. After making it through two dramatic matches, La Albiceleste is set to clash with Switzerland in the quarterfinals at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Jakarta time (WIB).  

Argentina comes in as the defending champion and the favorite. According to Opta Analyst, out of 25 thousand simulations run before the match, Argentina has a 57.1 percent chance of winning in regular time. Meanwhile, Switzerland only has an 18.7 percent chance, while the possibility of a draw reaches 24.2 percent.

Considering the possibility of the match going into extra time or penalty shootouts, Argentina's chances of advancing to the semifinals increase to 69.4 percent. Conversely, Switzerland's chances are only 30.6 percent.

Opta also notes that Switzerland has never defeated Argentina in seven meetings across all competitions. Meanwhile, Argentina remains undefeated in their last 11 World Cup matches, the longest streak in their history.

Sharp Frontline, Vulnerable Defense

With Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martínez, and Julián Álvarez in the frontline, Argentina has become one of the most productive teams throughout the tournament. La Albiceleste has scored in 14 consecutive World Cup matches since their 0-3 loss to Croatia in the 2018 World Cup group stage. They have also scored at least two goals in their last 11 World Cup matches, matching Uruguay's record that stood from 1930 to 1954.

During this streak, Argentina has recorded nine wins and two draws. This unbeaten record started after a surprising 1-2 defeat to Saudi Arabia in the opening match of the 2022 World Cup. However, the backline remains a concern for coach Lionel Scaloni.

Among all quarterfinal teams, only Spain has faced fewer shots on target than Argentina. However, Argentina has conceded five goals from nine shots on target directed at their goal. This means that more than half of the shots on target received by Argentina have resulted in goals. Only Uzbekistan and Tunisia have a worse conceding percentage throughout the tournament.

Confident Swiss

On the other hand, Switzerland has shown consistency throughout their journey to the quarterfinals. The team led by Murat Yakin is the only participant that has never fallen behind in a match since the qualifying rounds until the final rounds of the 2026 World Cup. This record was achieved in 11 matches, consisting of six qualification matches and five final round matches.

Switzerland secured their place in the quarterfinals after eliminating Colombia through a penalty shootout. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel became the hero after making crucial saves.

Although they last reached the quarterfinals in 1954, Switzerland comes with high confidence due to their solid performance throughout the tournament. Captain Granit Xhaka has been the driving force of the team's gameplay, making 75 line-breaking passes, the second highest in the 2026 World Cup after Spain's midfielder Rodri, who recorded 80 passes.

Meanwhile, Ricardo Rodríguez is expected to once again be the player responsible for limiting Messi's movement. The 33-year-old left-back has appeared in 31 major tournament matches since the 2014 World Cup. Among European outfield players, only Harry Kane has more appearances.

Upfront, Breel Embolo is also a key player for Switzerland. In the last 17 international matches, he has been involved in 13 goals, scoring 11 and providing two assists.

Argentina's Favorable Head-to-Head Record

Statistics also favor Argentina. Switzerland has never defeated Albiceleste in seven meetings in all competitions. They have achieved only two draws and suffered five defeats. Argentina has also won in both encounters between the two teams in the World Cup, with a 2-0 victory in the 1966 edition and a 1-0 win in the Round of 16 of the 2014 World Cup.

Switzerland has struggled against South American representatives as well. In 10 World Cup matches against CONMEBOL teams, they have only secured one victory, three draws, and six losses.

Messi Aims for a New Record

Argentina's journey to the quarterfinals has not been easy. After going through extra time to overcome Cape Verde, La Albiceleste was on the brink of elimination when they were trailing 0-2 against Egypt with only 12 minutes left in the Round of 16.

However, Argentina rallied and won 3-2. Messi assisted Cristian Romero's goal before scoring the equalizer. Enzo Fernández then secured the victory with a goal in injury time.

At 39 years old, Messi continues to make history. He became the first player to score in six consecutive knockout phase matches in a World Cup. He also extended his record as the player to score in nine World Cup final round matches.

However, the Argentine captain also set a less pleasant record. After failing to convert a penalty against Austria in the group stage and another miss against Egypt, Messi became the first player to miss two penalties in a single World Cup edition.

The match against Switzerland also presents an opportunity for Messi to set a new historic record. The eight goals he has scored in the 2026 World Cup are the highest tally achieved by a player before the start of the quarterfinals. Among South American players, only Ademir from Brazil has scored more goals in a single World Cup edition, with nine goals in 1950.

Read: World Cup Preview: England's Biggest Test Yet Is Stopping Erling Haaland

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