TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Earthquake expert from Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) Irwan Meilano, said the Kamchatka region in Russia, which was rocked by a major earthquake causing a tsunami, is similar to certain areas in Indonesia.
He explained that the magnitude 8.7 earthquake occurred in a seismic gap zone, an area that has previously experienced major earthquakes but has not shown significant activity for a long period.
"Tectonically, Kamchatka is similar to the west coast of Sumatra, the south coast of Java, and the north of Halmahera in Indonesia," said Irwan in a statement on the ITB website on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. The areas in Indonesia have the potential for major earthquakes.
According to Irwan, who has conducted studies in Kamchatka, the northern part of Kamchatka experienced a magnitude 9 earthquake in the 1950s, and the southern part experienced a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the 1960s - 1970s.
Regarding the recent earthquake, Irwan mentioned that there was a foreshock with a magnitude of 7 that occurred more than a week earlier. The initial earthquake or foreshock can only be confirmed after a main earthquake with a magnitude larger than the previous foreshock occurs.
After the main earthquake, according to Irwan, aftershocks usually occur. In some cases, aftershocks can be even larger, as in the 2018 Lombok earthquake. However, if following the general pattern, he estimates that aftershocks in Kamchatka will have smaller magnitudes.
The 8.7 magnitude earthquake in Kamchatka has the potential to trigger strong tremors, especially in the surrounding areas. Irwan estimates that in the northern part of Hokkaido, Japan, the tremor intensity from the Kamchatka earthquake could reach a magnitude of 8 to 9 on the earthquake intensity scale. Another concern is the potential for a tsunami that could reach far from the earthquake epicenter.
He is closely monitoring information and communicating with colleagues in Japan. "At the northern coast of Tohoku, the tsunami height has reached 60 cm, while in the southern part it is about 40-50 cm," he said. Based on the speed of tsunami wave propagation, Irwan estimates that if a tsunami were to reach Indonesian waters, the wave could arrive within 8-10 hours after the earthquake occurs.
According to the ITB Vice Rector, Japan sets a good example in developing earthquake and tsunami early warning systems that are not only based on calculation models, but also on direct observations. "Japan has sensors based on pressure that can detect a tsunami before it reaches the coastline," he said.
He also mentioned that Japan has additional sensors on the coast, for example, based on tidal observations. According to Irwan, this monitoring provides much more accurate warnings for communities living near the coast. He hopes that Japan's earthquake and tsunami early warning system can serve as a model for Indonesia in strengthening disaster mitigation, especially in earthquake and tsunami-prone areas.
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